This week (2024.5.17-2024.5.23) domestic soda ash prices are on the strong side. As of this Thursday (May 23), the current average market price of light soda ash is 2,111 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last Thursday, an increase of 1.78%; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,285 yuan/ton, the price increased by 94 yuan/ton, or 4.29%, from last Thursday. The market price of soda ash has increased this week, and prices in various places have been adjusted to varying degrees. Futures prices have increased significantly, and the market price continues to be high. In addition, the new line maintenance plan of a factory in Shandong was fulfilled as scheduled during the week, and the market supply has declined. Under the influence of dual positive factors, the mood on the market has improved, and various companies have made offers. The prices were adjusted upward, with bullish prices mainly operating, and low prices on the market decreasing. However, from the perspective of the demand side, the downstream market is still mainly maintaining the right amount of inventory replenishment and follow-up, and is generally accepting of high prices. After the increase, the market's high-priced orders have limited transactions. Taken together, this week's rise in soda ash prices was mostly driven by positive gains on the futures and supply side, while the performance on the downstream demand side remained relatively stable.
Supply: As of the 21st week of 2024, according to BAIINFO statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.2 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 39.45 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash factories, with a total operating capacity of 18.5 million tons; 11 ammonia-alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 14.35 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 6.6 million tons). Qinghai Fatou soda ash plant restarted this week; the soda ash plant of Tongbai Haijing Xuri branch plant will be shut down for maintenance from May 18; the production line of Shandong Haihua New Plant will be shut down for maintenance as scheduled from May 21; the soda ash plant of Southern Alkali Industry is affected by the power plant. The load has declined and has gradually recovered; Henan Haohua Jun Chemical has been affected by equipment problems and is currently not satisfied with the load. The overall soda ash industry operating rate is 80.50%, and the overall supply has decreased compared with last week.
On the demand side: there is no significant adjustment in the start-up of downstream sodium metabisulfite, sodium metabisulfite, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries. There is no obvious adjustment in the start-up of downstream flat glass, and the demand remains stable. The output of photovoltaic glass this week was basically the same as last week, with no new ignition. Overall, the overall performance of the downstream industry is relatively stable, and the raw material soda ash is mainly followed up on demand.
Cost profit: The cost of the domestic soda ash industry dropped this week. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers was approximately 1,515.9 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.04%; the average gross profit of the soda ash industry was approximately 683.44 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 30.36%. This week, the market price of industrial salt increased slightly, thermal coal increased slightly, the market price of synthetic ammonia dropped significantly, the raw material cost of soda ash fell slightly, the market price of soda ash rose, and profits increased.
In terms of inventory: This week, domestic soda ash companies mainly ship according to orders, and downstream users maintain normal replenishment and follow-up. Domestic factory inventories show a downward trend this week. As of May 23, according to BAIINFO's statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 669,500 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from last week.（BAIINFO）
