Market overview: According to BAIINFO's tracking statistics, the average domestic light soda ash market price in May (May 1, 2024 - May 28, 2024) was 2,100 yuan/ton, compared with the average price in April of 1,932 yuan/ton. An increase of 168 yuan/ton, or 8.70%; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton, or 8.52%, compared with the April average price of 2,055 yuan/ton. In May, the domestic soda ash market showed an overall upward trend. In the first half of the month, the soda ash market had limited fluctuations, and the overall operation basically maintained stable. Due to the shutdown of a major factory in Jiangsu, the spot supply was tight, and the market price in East China increased, while the fluctuations in other regions were limited; in the middle of the month, the soda ash market shipments were sluggish, and prices started to rise. On the way down, transaction prices in many regions continued to fall; until late in the month, the soda ash market began to rise, with prices in various regions adjusting to varying degrees. Futures prices rose significantly, and market prices continued to be high. In addition, the supply-side maintenance equipment plan was fulfilled as scheduled. The market supply has declined. Under the influence of dual positive factors, the sentiment on the market has improved. All companies have raised their offers. The long-price operation has been the main operation, and the low prices on the market have decreased. However, from the demand side, the downstream market still maintains the need to replenish the inventory in an appropriate amount to follow up, and is generally accepting of high-priced soda ash.
Supply: As of May 28, according to statistics from BAIINFO, China's total domestic pure water production capacity is 43.2 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the device operating capacity totals 39.45 million tons (a total of 19 joint water companies factories, with a total operating capacity of 18.5 million tons; 11 ammonia plants, with a total operating capacity of 14.35 million tons; and 3 natural mineral plants, with a total production capacity of 6.6 million tons). This month, factories such as Jiangsu Shilian, Henan Junhua, Boyuan Yingen, Qinghai Development Investment, Tongbai Haijing, Shandong Haihua, Nanfang Yiye, Xiangyu Salt Chemical, Shandong Haitian and other factories all have pure chlorine equipment load reduction or maintenance. The production volume fluctuated during the month and supply was the main factor, and the overall pure industry operating rate was 84.01%.
In terms of inventory: The spot inventory of domestic pure cobalt manufacturers showed an overall downward trend this month, and the overall pure cobalt manufacturers’ inventory remained between 670,000 and 690,000 tons. As of May 28, according to BAIINFO statistics, the average total inventory of domestic pure-play enterprises in May was approximately 678,000 tons, which was slightly lower than the average of the previous month.
On the demand side: This month, the purchasing attitude of domestic pure-pure downstream users is still cautious, and they mainly follow up on buying orders for immediate needs. In the second half of the year, as pure-pure prices continue to rise, downstream users are somewhat resistant to high-priced supply. The downstream daily glass, sodium metabisulfite, sodium bisulfite, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries currently have limited start-up adjustments, and mainly maintain on-demand procurement and follow-up; the lithium carbonate industry has limited start-up fluctuations, and demand Relatively stable; for downstream photovoltaic glass, three new production lines were ignited in May, with a total new capacity of 3,400t/d, supporting pure glass demand.
In terms of cost: this month's domestic pure cost mainly increased compared with the previous month. In May, the price of industrial salt fell and then rose, the thermal coal market price increased, and the synthetic ammonia market rose and then fell. The pure raw material end showed an overall upward trend, and the cost end provided certain bottom support. As of May 28, the comprehensive average cost of pure cobalt manufacturers this month was approximately 1,509 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the average cost last month, an increase of approximately 2.31%.
In terms of profits: The profits of the domestic pure-play industry have increased this month. This month, the cost price of pure cobalt has increased, but the market price of pure cobalt has also increased, and the price of pure cobalt has increased significantly in the second half of the month, which has led to an increase in product profit margins. As of May 28, the comprehensive average gross profit of the domestic pure cobalt industry was approximately 574 yuan/ton, an increase of 137 yuan/ton from the average gross profit last month, an increase of approximately 31.35%. (BAIINFO)
