Market overview: Domestic soda ash prices continue to be strong this week (2024.5.24-2024.5.30). As of this Thursday (May 30), the current average market price of light soda ash is 2,172 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan/ton from last Thursday, an increase of 2.89%; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,314 yuan/ton , the price increased by 29 yuan/ton, or 1.29%, from last Thursday. The price focus of the soda ash market continues to rise this week, and some factories have introduced new prices and actively raised them. The early maintenance equipment on the supply side has not been restarted yet. This week, Shandong and Chongqing alkali plants have reduced their load and production. The overall market supply continues to decline, providing certain support for the soda ash market. During the week, soda ash companies introduced a new round of prices, and most of the prices increased. Soda plants quoted high prices, and the mentality of price support still exists. However, there is no obvious change in the downstream demand side. The urgent need to replenish the stock is maintained, and the inventory of slightly higher-priced raw materials is maintained. There must be some resistance. Taken together, the price of soda ash increased in a new round this week. The increase was more obvious in East and Central China, but the downstream follow-up was more cautious. The overall transaction situation was average, and there was some resistance to high-price transactions. New prices in other areas have not been announced yet.
Supply: As of the 22nd week of 2024, according to BAIINFO statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.2 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 39.45 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash factories, with a total operating capacity of 18.5 million tons; 11 ammonia-alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 14.35 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 6.6 million tons). This week, the production line of Shandong Haihua's new plant and Jiangsu Shilian soda ash plant are still shut down for maintenance; Tongbai Haijing Xuri Branch will shut down for maintenance on May 18 and restart on May 28; Shandong Haitian on May 27, 2024 the load reduction and production reduction are expected to last until the end of the month; Hunan and Chongqing Salinization will begin to reduce the load and production on May 28, 2024, with an impact period of about two weeks; there are still some remaining units that have not reached full production. The overall soda ash industry operating rate is 80.01%, and the overall supply has shrunk slightly from last week.
On the demand side: downstream sodium metabisulfite, sodium metabisulfite, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries have limited fluctuations in the start-up. The start-up of downstream flat glass has slightly increased, and the procurement of raw materials has been followed up normally. The output of photovoltaic glass this week has not been significantly adjusted compared with last week. Near the weekend, a new production line in Anhui Flat was put into production with a capacity of 1,600t/d. Overall, the demand in the downstream industry is relatively stable, and the main focus is on on-demand replenishment of the raw material soda ash.
Cost profit: The cost of the domestic soda ash industry has increased this week. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers is approximately 1,534.9 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.25%; the average gross profit of the soda ash industry is approximately 687.88 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.65%. This week, the price fluctuations in the industrial salt market are limited, the thermal coal trend is upward, the synthetic ammonia market price has increased, the soda ash raw material cost has increased, the soda ash market has also risen, and the overall profit level has limited fluctuations.
In terms of inventory: Domestic soda ash companies have mainly maintained normal shipments this week, and downstream users still focus on rigid needs in purchasing. There is some resistance to high-priced transactions. Domestic factory inventories continue to decline this week. As of May 30, according to BAIINFO's statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 651,600 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from last week. (BAIINFO)
