Market overview
This week (2024.6.14-2024.6.20), the decline in the domestic soda ash market is difficult to change, and prices continue to fall. As of this Thursday (June 20), the current average market price of light soda ash is 2,007 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 3.51% from last Thursday; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,185 yuan/ton. , a price drop of 62 yuan/ton, or 2.76%, from last Thursday. The soda ash market lacks positive support this week, and prices have been falling all the way. On the supply side, only some factories in Jiangsu have reduced production, and individual soda plants in Henan are temporarily suspended. The overall impact on the market is limited. The industry's operating level is high, and the market supply is relatively abundant; From the demand side, the downstream terminal demand is insufficient, the level of operation in some areas downstream of light alkali is not high, and the purchase of raw material soda ash is limited. The downstream of heavy soda ash is also cautious in following up the raw material soda ash, and mostly maintains rigid demand to reduce prices and replenish stocks. Taken together, the soda ash market has been sluggish this week, with fundamental supply and demand support hard to find, and the futures market trending poorly, dragging down the mentality of industry players. Alkali plants are not receiving orders well, inventory levels continue to rise, and shipments are under pressure. Prices it continues to fall. In addition, recently, there are many spot merchants selling goods on the market, and there are also rumors of slightly lower prices.
Supply: As of the 25th week of 2024, according to BAIINFO statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.2 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 39.45 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash factories, with a total operating capacity of 18.5 million tons; 11 ammonia-alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 14.35 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 6.6 million tons). This week, Jiangsu Huachang and Jingshen salt chemicals are operating at reduced capacity; Henan Haohua Jun Chemical was temporarily shut down for some reason on June 18, 2024 and has not yet resumed; some of the remaining units have not reached full production. The overall soda ash industry operating rate is 89.84%, which has little fluctuation compared with last week.
On the demand side: downstream sodium metabisulfite, sodium metabisulfite, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries demand is still relatively light, some downstream products are affected by shipping costs and exports are not smooth; flat glass production levels have declined, and photovoltaic glass has not been available this week. New production line ignition. Overall, the soda ash downstream industry has insufficient follow-up on demand, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive. It is more resistant to slightly higher prices, follows up on low prices, and has a more cautious purchasing attitude.
Cost profit: The cost of the domestic soda ash industry has declined this week. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers is approximately 1,511.36 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average gross profit of the soda ash industry is approximately 543.18 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 9.97%. The market price of industrial salt remained stable this week, the market price of thermal coal fell slightly, the market price of synthetic ammonia dropped more obviously, the raw material cost of soda ash fell, the market price of soda ash also declined, and the profit level shrank.
In terms of inventory: The shipment situation of domestic soda ash companies this week is still not ideal, and the reception of new orders is not good. Domestic factory inventories continue to rise this week. As of June 20, according to BAIINFO's statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 791,600 tons, an increase from last week. (BAIINFO)
