-Guest views-
Pu Xin: Researcher of Black Research and Investment Division of China Foundation Ningbo Group
Scrap steel is in a weak supply and demand environment, Logic was falsified from the end of May, After the crude steel balance balance, Need for crude steel reduction to solve the contradiction, Scrap steel as the first means to adjust the crude steel pressure, From June to now, the daily consumption of Fubao 255 caliber scrap steel has decreased from 560,000 to more than 460,000, Almost a reduction of $100,000, Basically digested the crude steel pressure, Then, when the demand continues to weaken, Supply has also been consistently suppressed, From the data, the database continues to hover at the low level, It shows that there is no speculation in the industry anymore, Including the fast in and out of the site due to excess processing capacity, Weak processing profits alone to serve as a safety cushion, It's easy to lose money by stepping on the wrong rhythm.
On the supply side, qualitative judgment, the total amount of goods in the second half of the year can not return to the level of the same period last year. The average arrival in the second half of the week is estimated to be around 450,000, and the supply in the second half of the year is-6% -10% year on year. Reason, according to the fubao 255 caliber, the first half of the supply is + 6, the difference in May, last May Shagang high fell down 300, the supply was basically interrupted, and May this year is the best arrival of the month, has been rising in price to repair the supply. In fact, the arrival of the first half of the year in May is basically flat year on year, but the average arrival in the second half of 23 is 490,000, but according to the current price can only guarantee the level of 42-45. I think there will be a year-on-year increase in the supply, unless we can give the steel mills a sustained high profits so as to stimulate the supply with the price.
In the short term, supply estimates will remain in weeks average 42 in a level, of course, the arrival of the goods will follow steel mills pricing rhythm, have pulse swing, like this week because shagang suddenly rose on Friday, will bring to east China site concentration, but after this round of shagang rose actually follow before shagang several steel mills with rose, most steel mills are not to follow, belong to supplement, then the site collect wool prices actually also basic didn't move, that this round of price is not too long, is still more cautious. In addition, the north these two days a little overcast fall. This may need to focus on, because the northern blast furnace recently daily consumption a bit follow the arrival of the goods in the adjustment, maintain a basis to add than, and then the arrival of the goods more multi-purpose, less, but now from the pricing state steel mills buy will a little weak, because before didn't how to fill, inventory is very low, now still take the lead, but down site actually frighten not out how many goods, now the price, the south goods basic can break even, fell to lose money, the batch may quickly into the factory. But the quantity of the goods, after all, so the total price is not stimulate too much quantity, the northern steel price pricing mainly reference billet and disk price, billet price down disk weaker recently, the north continued Yin fall will spread trade profits, and because the arrival of the goods declining reversed transmission steel mills to add quantity.
Demand side, the long process of two points: one is their own order has not changed, mainly is the plate order if there is no problem, there is no need to further take the initiative to reduce daily consumption. The second is the arrival of goods, which may lead to passive daily consumption because of less goods. By now on, this may be happening.
In the short process, two rounds of production reduction have been completed, one round has been reduced in southwest China, South China + Fujian has been reduced, and then we mainly see East China. The main problem in East China is that although the grain valley is losing money, the billet can still be dry, but the arrival of the electric furnace after the rise of Shagang will certainly be affected. The price of electric furnace material Shagang has about 20 advantages than electric furnace. After the attention will affect the arrival of goods and then trigger steel load action.
However, the electric furnace has an advantage of strong self-regulation ability. After this round of maintenance of south China electric furnace, in fact, the thread spot liquidity in south China is getting better, the profits of steel mills have also improved, and Guangdong soon has the electric furnace opened. So the daily consumption of the electric furnace continues to play down, I think it is more difficult. In this way, in fact, after the daily consumption is reduced to this state, it is likely to stabilize, or the decline has slowed down significantly.
In conclusion, the current supply is fragile, the price down easy to play to supply reduction, because the middle link of scrap base inventory is dry, so fell more easy to become infinite decline, scrap in 2400-2450 this position support, demand day to the position of the position of the length process in the state of material no further deterioration, downward space is not much, the variable is the back will not because of the arrival of less reversed transmission steel mills reduce daily consumption. Overall look in the short term scrap supply and demand are not too used back. The current market is relatively boring.
Shi Lei: Head of longzhong plastic industry chain
Good evening, everyone. I am Shi Lei, and I am very lucky to come to Feisi Super Round table again. Tonight I would like to take this opportunity to share with you the recent changes in the PVC market and some personal views.
In the past half a year, we can see the second quarter domestic PVC quarterly average rose 127 yuan / ton in 5782 yuan / ton, from the data, 2 quarter PVC production 1 quarter down 2.87% in 5.75 million tons, capacity utilization quarter 2 quarter down 2.63% in 77.32%, domestic imports 1,2 quarter expected flat, total supply slightly down 2.87 points.
In terms of demand, from the perspective of export data, it is estimated that the export in the second quarter increased by more than 2.57% from the first quarter by more than 640,000 tons, and the domestic theoretical consumption in the second quarter increased by 9.2% from the first quarter by 5.28 million tons, although the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter.
However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply in the second quarter tightened compared with the first quarter, while the total demand increased slightly compared with the first quarter. The supply and demand in the domestic market performed better in the second quarter, which led to the increase of the price focus.
However, from the perspective of domestic inventory changes, the market social inventory maintained the growth trend at the end of the second quarter and the first quarter. Balance the impact of the inventory growth, the actual consumption in the second quarter and the first quarter was about 1.19%, and the consumption performance increased slowly. Growth in the second quarter was slightly lower than the above figures.
At the beginning of the second half of the year, if the new production capacity is realized successively realized, by the end of the year, the domestic pvc production capacity will increase to 28.16 million tons, and the pvc supply capacity will be further improved. It is expected that the domestic pvc production will reach 23.83 million tons in 2024. From the perspective of process, the new production capacity in the later period is mainly ethylene method, and the proportion of ethylene production capacity is expected to be further increased.
In the second half of the year, autumn maintenance is an important stage of the PVC industry, which will have a certain phased impact on the output and inventory, but from the time and scale of maintenance, the possibility of exceeding the expected maintenance is not large, and the PVC maintenance loss in the second half of the year may be similar to that in previous years, and there will be no significant increase or decrease. Production in the second half of the year is expected to be 12.16 million tons, up 4.27% from the first half. PVC The annual output has increased steadily. It is expected that the domestic PVC output will reach 23.83 million tons in 2024, an increase of 4.39% compared with the previous year.
With the help of the strong demand for building materials and basic pipelines in global developing countries, and the price advantage of domestic PVC export, it is preliminarily estimated that the annual export of PVC continues to remain at about 2.4338 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.07%. The global economy has entered a new cycle, In the late stages of the recession triggered by US interest rate hikes, China's economic development is still relatively resilient, China seeks a breakthrough in the housing market competition, Formulate and implement a series of policies conducive to facilitate the stable development of the real estate market in 2024, The bottoming out and reversal of its development speed also triggered changes in the industry's demand for PVC-related products, Preliminary estimates are that domestic PVC consumption in the second half of 2024 is 11,039,100 tons, Up 9.21% from the first half of the year (the first half of the Spring Festival affected demand weakened 2-3 weeks), Up 0.62% from the same period last year, The annual domestic PVC consumption reached 21.1468 million tons, Year-on-year growth of 1.70%.
on the whole, In the second half of 2024, the domestic PVC market will face the rapid launch of new production capacity, The pressure to keep the production volume growing, Compared with the previous year-on-year high industry inventory and other supply side pressure; Further decentralization of the domestic real estate market, The new energy industry has maintained its growth, Good for the steady growth in domestic demand, However, due to the increased global trade friction, Increasing barriers, PVC Export pressure of raw materials and products, The contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding in the traditional summer and winter off-season is expected to be outstanding; PVC Upstream calcium carbide and ethylene raw materials in the second half of the price strong up, The PVC market bottom support is expected to be good; Market supply growth remained slightly higher than demand in the second half, While domestic demand has maintained a slow growth, Industry inventories are too high to fall, There is still a accumulation trend, on the whole, The market price of the domestic PVC spot market in the second half of the year is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5500-6100 yuan / ton, The volatility range has narrowed from the first half of the year, But half a year price average price center of gravity compared with the first half of the year slightly increased.
In the near term, the market expected that the domestic maintenance scale reached a new high in the year, which is expected to be higher than the intensity of April to May, and the market supply pressure is weakened; July is the slow demand in Asia, more than 20%. Before the implementation of India 11, the export will not get better due to sea freight risk, BIS policy avoidance, and market demand. Supply and demand are both weak, the fluctuation of the export of Asia (Japan, the month of about 10,000 tons, a small amount of external mining, and August maintenance) caused the vinyl chloride supply is expected to tension, the market price rose slightly, but considering the high cost pressure, weakened demand of external ethylene enterprises, ethylene cost is expected to rise slightly, will not continue; the cost performance differences. However, in July, although the supply is good, but the demand is in the off-season, superimposed high inventory is difficult to maintain under, cost fluctuations, the market price to maintain the range fluctuation probability will not change, East China calcium carbide method 5 is expected to see 5600-5800 range.
In July, it is recommended to focus on: BIS meetings in India, regional sea freight fluctuations in Asia, changes in domestic overhaul scale, and future changes in vinyl chloride supply.
Thanks!
Ye Yuge: Researcher of Zhejiang Naxuan Private Equity Fund Management Co., LTD
I think the third and fourth quarters are still a black bear market.
From the point of view of the balance sheet, it is difficult to continue to supply the supply iron, and in the case of electric furnace loss, the thread production growth is limited. On the demand side, although the real estate bottom has not yet been seen, the steel table has had to test the bottom of 230 in recent weeks. Now good expectations are mainly in infrastructure and follow-up policies. The fundamentals of thread recently began to ease, especially in south China, the lower price of 100 yuan. And the spreads in the other regions are shrinking. In the short term, we can pay attention to the demand repair after the plum blossom. But behind is the high temperature, including the south China electric furnace has profits and to open, Friday asked down the electric furnace factory point to point loss of about 50, large electric furnace factory (quantum electric furnace) slightly loss or flat. Including the specification of south China price is more, the base price is only 18,20-22 price 80. There is also the tax compensation after the standard, so the output of the electric furnace should increase. How long the good news in the south lasts is also a question.
Recent disk gave a higher than the country's best northern thread price, I think it is unreasonable. Thread inventory will be the second half of the low to neutral. But look at the low point in April this year, when the fundamentals of the material itself are still worse, including the current steel profits and molten iron, did not let the raw material difference to that share. I can't see it yet to break through that low. The whole thread is still in the shock range, but its premium structure, the disk price is higher than the north are suitable for short match.
The supply and demand of hot coil in the first half of the year showed both supply and demand. The bright spot of demand is still the strong export of steel. Although the export has been weakened at home and abroad recently, I think the export demand is still relatively strong. First, from the perspective of the interest rate spread between China and the United States, it is the new high in 10 years. So as long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, China's exchange rate is conducive to the opening of export profits and increase the profits of exports including tax when the bill supervision is tightened. Second, the objective existence of overseas demand, overseas costs are higher, prompting it to suppress their own iron, import prices low steel. If China's steel exports are interrupted, in other domestic can not be timely added will raise the overall price of steel. It also increases the profit of exports including tax. This also reduces the possibility of a precipitous slide in exports. Take the data for example, the SMM departure data in July was 12.62 million tons, up 4.65 million tons year on year, the highest export level in recent years. From January to May, the Statistics Bureau + June SMM data, the cumulative export of 54.49 million tons, which is still the top priority of steel demand in the second half of the year.
However, due to various factors such as supervision, the export may be reflected in the form of billet, rather than in the form of timber. According to the balance sheet, the export downward adjustment, superimposed on the arrival of the off-season, the hot coil inventory may remain relatively high in the second half of the year, and the liquidity after the decline gradually decreased. So the height of 10 snails can not exceed 05, but considering the export pattern has not changed, including the falling thread is more pessimistic. The overall interval is between 100 and 200.
In this iron water, from the perspective of liquidity, steel mills still have demand, the supply of iron ore falling below 90 dollars can basically match the reduction of crude steel demand, so although iron ore is much weaker than in previous years, but in the second half of the year in the base and positive structure, or can be used as a multiple combination of empty materials. Combined with the premium structure of the material, you can pay attention to the profit compression of the disk surface.
Wei Ying: Industrial futures investment advisory Department of ferrous metals analyst
charred coal:
Domestic coal:
This year's policy has a great impact on the coal mine production in Shanxi Province. According to the policy time, the "look back" and acceptance link of the third stage of mine safety production support work in Shanxi Province, as well as the third stage (supervision and inspection and self-inspection) of the special rectification activities of "three super" and concealed working face of coal mines in Shanxi Province, have all been completed. Now Shanxi Province is implementing the second phase of the political action plan for centralized work safety investigation (ending in August).
After a number of rectification, coal mine safety accidents in Shanxi province have decreased significantly compared with the second half of 2023. And Shanxi's economy is highly dependent on the coal industry. Recovery of production is the main line of domestic coal mines in the second half of the year.
As of this week, the operating rate of 523 sample mines of Steel Union was 90.03%, up 4.78 percentage points compared with the beginning of May, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 8.52%; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants of Steel Union was 69.83%, rising for 2 consecutive weeks, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 4.5 percentage points.
The most critical part of the second half of the year is the pace of resumption of production, whether to ensure the production target of 1.3 billion tons (last year was 1.378 billion tons, and the Statistics Bureau was 1.357 billion tons). Recently, coal mines in Shanxi region have resumed production relatively quickly. If we want to protect 1.3 billion tons, the domestic coking coal supply in the second half of the year sequential increase is considerable.
Mongolian coal: high supply pressure has appeared. Affected by the low price of domestic coal and the high inventory in the port supervision area, the number of coal customs clearance vehicles in Mongolia has decreased significantly recently. This week, the three major ports opened to traffic 1840 (-29.72%) per day. During the next week, the three major ports will be closed (from July 11 to 15). According to the average daily customs clearance volume in June, the reduction of customs clearance will exceed 1.2 million tons. However, the port coal inventory is high, the actual impact is relatively limited.
This week the focus is the third quarter Mongolian coal long association price. In the third quarter, the price of main coking coal was set at $82, down $14 from the second quarter. According to the calculation of steel Union, the pit price is converted into the port price, the tax cost of raw coal in Mongolia 5 is about 1050-1100 yuan / ton, and the converted warehouse receipt cost is about 1300 yuan / ton. At present, the quoted price of Mongolian 5 raw coal port is 1320 yuan / ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is 1640 yuan / ton.
Another important variable in the second half of the year is the change in the customs clearance volume of Ceke ports after the completion of the China-Mongolia cross-border railway. The railway, which connects Sibbulun port and China's Zeek port, was completed on May 29,2024, and the overall project will be completed in the third quarter. On the fourth quarter or next year's Mongolian coal customs clearance impact is greater. In theory, after the completion of the railway, the annual customs clearance volume of Ceke port can increase to 30-35 million tons (19.131,900 tons in 2023).
Australian coal: In the first five months of this year, the import increased by 1.83 million tons, but the import price is inverted. The absolute scale of Australian coal import is still small, and the total import volume is only 2.63 million tons. Last week, a gas explosion at Anglo America's Grosvenor (Grosvena) coal mine mainly affected seaborne coal prices and had a limited impact on domestic coal prices and actual coking coal supply.
Coking coal inventory: the total inventory is low, the inventory structure is observed compared with the same period last year, the upstream mine inventory is high, and the downstream inventory is low. This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 263,000 tons, of which (1) upstream coal mine raw coal inventory 349.45 (+ 8.22), cleaned coal inventory 2.8357 million tons (-3.61); (2) downstream coking plant purchasing enthusiasm recovered, independent coke enterprise inventory 9.283 million tons (+ 16), steel coking coal inventory 7.44 million tons (-5.1), and port inventory 839.9 (-3.9).
Coke:
Coking capacity overcapacity pattern is clear. According to steel Union statistics, as of early June, eliminate coking capacity of 5.2 million tons this year, adding 13.46 million tons, a net increase of 8.26 million tons (under the deployment of steel-coking integration strategy, new steel mills self-coking capacity); it is expected to eliminate coke production capacity of 14.12 million tons in 2024,34.71 million tons, a net increase of 20.59 million tons.
This year, energy saving and carbon reduction gear began. Before the introduction of the policy, the provinces have introduced policies to continue to promote the coking industry to carry out ultra-low emission transformation. According to the data of Steel Union, after the elimination of backward production capacity in recent years, Shandong, Hebei and Henan have completed the elimination of backward production capacity, and the production capacity to be eliminated in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is only 4.2% and 6% respectively, with little impact. The subsequent pressure of production capacity elimination is mostly concentrated in Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan and other regions.
Therefore, the supply of coke depends on the demand of the downstream blast furnace, and it is difficult to make a stable profit for the long time.
After the first round of coke price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have been repaired (steel Union, national 38, Shanxi 46, Shandong 102, Inner Mongolia 2-7, Hebei 98), coke production enthusiasm increased. This week, coke weekly coke daily output of 1,1512 million tons, up 0,98 million tons, the full sample independent coking enterprises coke capacity utilization rate rose to 74.03% (73.78% in the same period last year), daily output of 681,700 tons (the same period last year); steel coking enterprises capacity utilization rate narrow fluctuation, this week was 87.03% (86.53% in the same period last year), daily output of 469,500 tons (467,300 tons).
Coke inventory is relatively low. This week, the total sample coke inventory of Steel Union was 8.217,900 tons, down 37,200 tons from last week, down 756,500 tons from the same period last year, the lowest since the same period in 2018, and only 131,300 tons higher than the lowest since 2018. By structure, (1) coke inventory of independent coking plant is 606,900 tons, down 21,100 tons compared with last week, 274,800 tons less than the same period last year; (2) steel plant coke inventory is 5,528,300 tons, down 45,600 tons from last week, 389,400 tons less than the same period last year; (3) port coke inventory is 2,082,700 tons, up 29,500 tons compared with last week, but still lower than 92,300 tons in the same period last year.
From the total, coke enterprises and steel coke inventory has been very low, there are slight differences between regions. North China, East China coke inventory is the lowest. In the quantile of coke inventory since 2020, north China coke enterprises coke inventory 1%, coke inventory of steel mills is 0.4%, the available days of steel inventory is 1.7%, East China coke inventory 0% (00,000 tons), steel coke inventory 11.5%, steel inventory available days 11.5%.
If the iron production is not reduced, coke supply and demand is still tight. Coke spot the second round up after the game should be landed.
At present, the coke port warehouse receipt is 2,180. Disk small premium of 80.
Iron melt:
Because the cost of long process steel mill (East China 3554, tax) is lower than the cost of electric furnace (Jiangsu level power 3701, Valley power 3538, tax), so in the process of this round of steel production, the electric furnace is the first to reduce production, and the long process of scrap steel added, so that the blast furnace production, and molten iron still maintain toughness. This week, the daily production of steel linked iron water slightly down 1200 tons to 2.3932 million tons, 2 consecutive decline, from the high of the cumulative reduction of 02 million tons, and Fubao scrap steel consumption fell 25,200 tons to 465,600 tons, down for 4 consecutive weeks, since the high has been reduced 94,200 tons.
In the absence of external administrative production limit policy, the slope of the decline of molten iron production depends on steel consumption and long process steel mills.
The specific implementation plan of energy saving and carbon reduction and crude steel production control policy is unclear, and it is difficult to assess its impact on the daily output of molten iron.
We estimate that in the second half of 2024, the daily output of molten iron corresponding to the balance of coking coal will reach 2.39-2.4 million tons. There may still be some problems in the supply of scrap steel. Through the safety cushion provided by scrap steel, the actual supply and demand balance of coking coal in the second half of 2024 is slightly loose, and coke mainly follows the fluctuation of coking coal.
Zhou Junpeng: CFA, FRM
Short-term iron ore shock range of 100 US dollars-115 US dollars, the current market has the following several more important concerns
1. Last year, the foreign call option Gamma Squeeze resumed. The price range of foreign continued Gamma Squeeze is Singapore swap August and Q3 contracts, with execution prices of $115 and $116, and the trading volume is about 8 million tons.
A) Call option Gamma Squeeze was traded by buying a large number of calls at an absolute price of $105, and the impulse of counterparty banks was only Delta20%, that is, for every 10,000 tons of call options, the bank only bought 2,000 tons of swaps to hedge. However, with the rise of absolute price, Delta rises rapidly, that is, when the target price approaches the strike price, Gamma (the change rate of Delta) is the largest, and the counterparty bank needs to quickly make up up to 5,000 tons to hedge the absolute price risk. This operation is called option Gamma Squeeze, which can be imagined as foreign investors on the options of counterparty banks.b)
If Gamma Squeeze is successful, according to the Gamma Squeeze success model last year, the swap August and Q3 contracts will rise above the execution price by about $5, which is the impact force of Gamma Squeeze, and then the peak of the swap August and Q3 contracts will be at $120
C) However, the fundamentals are too weak, the Gamma Squeeze success probability is expected to be 50%, not necessarily successful
2. On the other hand, determine the cause of the Gamma Squeeze success probability is not high because the iron ore rebounded to $120 in May corresponding thread price 3750, and the current thread price 3550, no iron ore further rise space, that is to say the current steel profit is too low, thread loss 100, hot roll earn 50, did not give iron upward space. So it is doubtful whether the rally will go to $120.
Iron ore long-term shock range of $90- $1251.
At present, the pressure of iron ore is mainly high shipment and high port inventory, the shipping end this year is mainly Brazil and the influence of dam break, with the cumulative increase of 11.74 million tons this year compared with last year; and the iron ore price is still slightly higher, most non-mainstream capacity still has profit, and the cumulative increase of 23.13 million tons. Therefore, the global shipments this year are 34.78 million tons compared with last year, and the cumulative increase this year will reach 70 million tons at the end of the year.
2. Such high shipments will also push iron ore deposits to higher levels. Currently, port inventories have risen to 150 million tons from 120 million tons at the beginning of the year, with many ports bloated and are expected to rise further if high shipments are maintained
3. Therefore, it is judged that iron ore prices may challenge $90 downward in the second half of the year to squeeze out some non-mainstream shipments to improve the situation of iron ore supply
4. The iron ore bullish factor is high daily pig iron production, boost iron ore demand, and the end of march, the average daily molten iron in 220,240, so we can see that every time the iron ore prices sharply callback, there will be steel mills in a lot of replenishment, because steel mills for iron ore low inventory operation, meet prices crash, have to take replenishment. So every time iron ore falls when the spot buying power is very strong, which is why iron ore can not fall smoothly
5. Moreover, in Q4, iron ore will generally rise seasonally, and I think this year is no exception. Even if the actual supply and demand is not good, optimistic expectations will boost iron ore to challenge $125.
Liu Sen: a black business division analyst
Good host, good audience! Thanks for the invitation of Feisi Finance. It is a great honor to visit Feisi again. The last time I came to study with you was two years ago. Now I will share with you about my views on the alloy market.
In the first half of the year, the double silicon market out of the magnificent market, in June presented the ultimate roller coaster market, the third quarter of the market "worry in joy".
Manganese silicon:
Before April, manganese-silicon production fell for six consecutive months. The cuts before the Spring Festival mainly came from high-cost regions in southern China, while the cuts after the Spring Festival came from Ningxia, where production is more sticky. There is a static supply gap in March, and the supply gap in April is enlarged. The gap between supply and demand is the initial driver of the price upward.
In its South32 quarterly report on April 22, Groot's damaged dock in March would need to be repaired in the first quarter of 2025. Groot Island manganese ore has a guided output of 5.87 million tons in fiscal year 2024, of which about 70% is shipped to China and about 1.6 million tons to other countries in the world.
After the rapid recovery of manganese silicon production, the removal rate of manganese ore is not as expected, and the rapid accumulation of warehouse receipt to 600,000 tons, the market expectation of a gap in manganese has changed. Manganese silicon in June into the negative feedback, manganese ore down to drive costs down, disk out of the smooth decline.
In 2023, the global wet ton output of manganese ore is about 60 million tons, and the Groot Island manganese ore will account for about 9.5% of the global wet ton output of manganese ore. In 2023, the global manganese ore will be about 20 million tons, and Groot Island manganese ore will account for about 12.1% of the global manganese ore output. Driven by this emergency, the manganese-silicon disk quickly goes up, giving a high risk-free arbitrage opportunity. The expansion of manganese silicon profit stimulated the production of manganese silicon, manganese silicon returned to the balance of supply and demand, and even turned to slightly loose. The loose manganese silicon supply is proved false. In the short term, the total manganese element gap can coexist with the structural gap, and the manganese silicon gradually turns to negative feedback.
The shipment of Groot Island had stopped at the end of March, and about 1 million tons of manganese ore had stopped by the end of June. From the perspective of Tianjin port, the main port in China, the proportion of three high-grade oxidized mines, namely Gabon, Australian and Brazilian mines, decreased from 43% to 28%. That is, within 3 months from April to June, the total gap of manganese ore with the structural deficiency of high oxide ore (more core factor can be understood as ferromanganese ore) coexist.
According to the arrival data of the port (dry tons of imported manganese ore, 2.4-2.45 million tons in June, 2.3 million tons from July to August), and converted to tons of manganese metal, the gap of manganese ore in July to August was 50,000 tons / month. That is, in the next two months, the total tension of manganese ore is still further increasing, the proportion of high-grade oxidized ore inventory will be further reduced, and the structural tension is more obvious.
Ningxia mainstream chemical coke 1560 yuan / ton, the neutral valuation is slightly lower, chemical coke downward space imagination is insufficient, even if down 200 yuan / ton, the cost of manganese silicon down about 100 yuan.
From the ratio of weekly port dredging volume and weekly manganese silicon production. After the Spring Festival to the middle of April, the average ratio was lower than 1, that is, the inventory of manganese ore in early April was at an absolute low after the initiative (consistent with the survey information at that time).
In the middle and late April, the manganese silicon factory experienced a wave of replenishment, the manganese ore rose rapidly. The manganese silicon factory tends to be cautious, and further tends to go to the warehouse in June. That is, the current manganese silicon plant manganese inventory, even higher than early April, is at a neutral low level. Under the manganese ore inventory with high output and low neutral manganese silicon, the purchase of manganese ore in July is rigid, and the demand side of manganese ore has certain guarantee.
Manganese silicon deliverable storage products, also known as "6517", that is, the lowest manganese content 65, silicon content 17. In addition to a few small elements, the general manganese and silicon production warehouse list five elements account for about 85%, the remaining elements are mainly iron elements. The recovery rate of manganese element in the furnace is 85-90%, and the recovery rate of iron element is about 90%, that is, the ratio of manganese ore in the furnace, the ratio of manganese element and iron element, and the reference interval is between 5 and 6.
High grade oxide ore, we generally refer to high manganese, low iron manganese ore, mainly the high manganese ratio, and according to the high manganese ratio, Ghana mine, Myanmar mine, Brazil mine and rich manganese slag. The total output of mines in Myanmar is limited, and the average annual import volume in the past five years is about 620,000 tons. It is expected to enter Myanmar recently, and the short-term supply will shrink sharply. The manganese content of Myanmar ore is less than 30%, with an increase of 180,000 tons, which is equivalent to 120,000 tons of 42.5% manganese content, which can replace about 10,000 tons of Australian ore monthly. Brazil imported about 104,000 tons of manganese from China last year, and from January to May this year averaged 31,000 tons, compared with 3,900 tons from March to May. Brazil's year-on-year import loss is large, and the Myanmar mine increment is small.
The production of manganese-rich residue peaked at 260,000 tons in the past five years, but the small blast furnaces in the past two years have been limited. We believe that after the production of manganese-rich residue rises to near 200,000 tons in the short term, the ability to increase production again will be limited. In 2023, the average monthly output of manganese rich slag will be 139,000 tons. Our monthly output in 2024 increases to 200,000 tons, and the monthly output will increase by about 60,000 tons. The manganese content of manganese rich slag is 30-40%, that is, the monthly replacement can be less than 50,000 tons.
Ghana manganese ore has increased significantly this year. The market said that the Ghana mine controlled by Tianyuan Manganese industry, this year the planned output is 5.6-6 million tons, Tianyuan Manganese industry self-use 3.6-4 million tons, and the monthly sales volume is around 150,000 tons. The typical value of manganese content in Ghana is 27.5%, 150,000 tons per month, and 42.5% Australian mine is 97,000 tons.
In addition to China, about 1.6 million tons of Australian mines have been sent to all over the world, mainly in India, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea. Most of these countries trade at long agreement prices, and after losing the Australian mine on Groot Island, the basic source of security can only be replaced by the Gabon block. The actual impact of mainstream Australian mines and Gabon block on China's supply is 350,000 tons of Australian mines monthly, plus 130,000 tons of Gabon overseas.
After the absolute price of total manganese rises, there will be signs of accelerated precipitation. From the perspective of the structure of ferromanganese ore than manganese ore, there is still a gap except the substitution and reduction ratio. The high premium between high oxide and South African semi-carbonate will be maintained (the premium reached 70% in 2022, compared to 50% now), with the upside risk reaching down to a certain level
Zhou Xiaoyan: Senior analyst of SDIC Essence Futures
Glass
This year's glass rainy season accumulation rate is higher than in previous years. The fundamental reason is that the terminal demand is not good. This year's processing orders have decreased significantly compared with the previous years. As of 20240701, the days of orders of glass deep processing enterprises are 10.0 days, continuing to decline month on month, down 3.85% month on month and 33.8% year on year. Project orders are insufficient, home decoration orders are weakened, the payment collection is poor, the stock willingness is low, the middle and lower reaches are pessimistic about the future market, the stock willingness is low, the early inventory of the low price to squeeze the glass factory out of the warehouse, which is also the most obvious reason for the Shahe area in the reservoir in this round of rainy season.
On the supply side, after the compression of glass profit this year, the production capacity declined, but still high compared to last year, the daily melting volume is still at the historical high level of 170,000 tons, the output from January to May glass increased by 8.3% compared with last year. Cold repair 12960 tons this year, after 7200 tons, new 2650 tons, net reduction 3110 tons, since April, cold repair speed is accelerating, but from the point of cold repair production line, most are kiln expire and need capacity replacement production line, from the point of the current profit, shahe gas near the balance, oil coke and coal production line still have profits, glass factory to focus on cold kinetic energy is not strong, but after profit compression, ignition will is reduced, expected subsequent capacity or shock operation is given priority to, or a slight decline, but the amount is not large.
Glass reality is weak and the cost support is mutual game. In the real end, the demand is insufficient, processing plant orders fall month on month, hoarding willingness is low, and although the supply is reduced, but still under pressure, the glass factory presents a storage pattern, high level is easy to pressure, but the bottom is close to the cost of natural gas, if the cost end rises or the macro mood improves, the glass will follow the fluctuation. In the middle of July, there is a national important meeting, and the current glass price is close to the cost near, plus the end of the rainy season, before the peak season downstream or fill the warehouse action, continue to fall space is limited, it is not recommended to continue to chase empty. But the fundamental problem of real estate funds has not been solved, the glass is difficult to see a large space to rise, there may be many short opportunities near the cost line, but the space is not large, after the rebound will be under pressure of the pattern.
soda ash
The logical background of soda ash is still the logic of high supply, so this year's supply center of gravity is certainly lower than last year, it is difficult to replicate last year's peak season maintenance market.
The inventory of soda ash plant is mainly concentrated in the light end, where the downstream demand is weak, reduced consumption, cautious procurement, rapid inventory accumulation, but the heavy end needs strong support, the inventory does not increase. From the historical level, the inventory of soda ash plant 960,000 tons is at the neutral high level. Delivery inventory inventory of 400,000 tons is at a record high level. Since May, the downstream glass factory has reduced its purchasing willingness, taken the initiative to reduce the raw material inventory, and the downstream link inventory has decreased. In the summer maintenance of July and August, the supply pressure is relieved. After the spot fell before, the downstream willingness to increase, the willingness to replenish inventory has been repaired, and the inventory pressure of soda ash plant is expected to ease.
At present, most of the weekly production is 700,000 to 750,000 tons, and the focus of the market yuanxing basically reached production, full production of about 15,000 tons, the reduction and production of Tianxing have a large impact on the fluctuation of the disk. Large logic, the high supply determines the space above the soda ash. But soda ash own characteristics, seasonal maintenance, and high industry concentration, large factory production events affect disk big, is not suitable for too low, take September contract, because 7-August maintenance plan, another summer easy to emergency (recent Haitian and Xuzhou feng into summer load running) affect production, 2000 still have strong support. This year because 3-early part of the factory, lead to this summer maintenance less than last year, but the overall into 7-August supply downward trend, Tangshan poetic 2.3 million tons, Hubei double ring 1.2 million tons, Qinghai colorful 1.1 million tons have maintenance plan, plus the other factory, subsequent maintenance loss is expected to be 350000 tons.
Demand side, pv continue to ignition, the daily capacity of 116000 tons, float glass 170000 tons, heavy weekly consumption in about 400000 tons, and heavy week production basic equilibrium, heavy just to support is strong, but light downstream demand, in addition to the bubble profit starts, daily glass, two sodium, monosodium glutamate, soda overall performance, downstream library will is not strong. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the light demand can improve, and open the replenishment demand of soda ash.
The supply brought by the maintenance is expected to decline, the downstream replenishment willingness to increase, 09 contract feels that 2000 support is relatively strong, but the overall maintenance volume is reduced this year, the supply is still relatively large, is expected to be difficult to reach the previous high position. In the future, pay attention to the maintenance trend of the factory and the production operation of Yuanxing. In addition, the light end weakness is one of the important drivers of the previous decline, pay attention to the recovery of light demand and the downstream replenishment willingness. In addition, there is still production pressure in the fourth quarter, you can pay attention to 9-1 set.(Feisi Finance)
The above guest views only represent individuals and do not constitute the basis for investment! The market is risky, and the investment needs to be cautious!
