Entering September, the hydrogen peroxide market did not usher in the "golden nine" market, but continued to fall trend. Take 27.5% hydrogen peroxide as an example, the average market price ran to 830 yuan (ton price, the same below) near, a decline of more than 50% compared with last year. Throughout the afternoon, the large release of hydrogen peroxide production capacity leads to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, which is difficult to reconcile in the short term, and the future market still has room to fall."Gold nine silver ten" scenery is no longer.
Production capacity has been released substantially
Into the third quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to fall. Although in September due to the reduction of individual enterprises in the northern market, the market briefly appeared bullish sentiment, the southern market was affected by this to stop falling and maintain stability, but the good news is fleeting. With the production of a new set of 230,000 tons, the market was under pressure again, the bullish sentiment gradually withdrew, and the hydrogen peroxide market returned to the downward track.
Longzhong consulting analyst Xue Dongmei believes that the release of production capacity to increase the production and marketing pressure, price war smoke. As of August, this year, China's new hydrogen peroxide production capacity was 3.79 million tons / year, and the total production capacity exceeded 30 million tons / year (27.5% discount), reaching 30.34 million tons / year, an increase of nearly 20% over 2019.
At present, in September, the maintenance and production of Henan Baililian, Baling Petrochemical, Changling refining and chemical plant was good for the market, but the new capacity, coupled with the preliminary maintenance of Weifang Yaxing 150,000 tons / year, Heze Jufeng 150,000 tons / year, Hualu Hengsheng 300,000 tons / year plant restart, the overall supply increased, making the market worse.
Looking at the future, from September to December, the number of hydrogen peroxide planning projects put into production is still considerable. It is expected that more than 3 million tons / year new capacity will be put, and the new capacity in 2024 may exceed 2022, hitting a record high. Therefore, the hydrogen peroxide market rising momentum was greatly weakened, the low operation is inevitable.
Insufficient raw material support
At present, the anthraquinone method is mainly used in domestic hydrogen peroxide production, that is, 2-ethylanthraquinone is used as the carrier of hydrogen, while 2-ethylanthraquinone is produced by the oxidation of anthracene in coal tar.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Zhang Min said that into September, the domestic anthracene market weak decline, although the decline is narrow, but the terminal market demand is general, businesses cautious goods, according to the purchase operation, the market trading atmosphere is weak, the market trend gradually declined. As of September 18, the price of anthracene in Shandong was 4,300 yuan, down 2.27% from the beginning of the month, down 17.31% year on year.
Industry insiders believe that the main factor affecting the weakening of anthracene market in September is the weak terminal demand, the carbon black market in the main consumption field is weak, the terminal tire market demand is weak, the enthusiasm for anthracene delivery is not high, the superimposed raw material high temperature coal tar market is stable and weak, the cost of the support for hydrogen peroxide is weakened.
In the future, although the coking operating rate is low, but the downstream deep processing products are weak, high temperature coal tar market or will be stable and weak operation. On the demand side, the domestic carbon black downstream tire market is insufficient, the demand for carbon black continues to weaken, conduction to the anthracene market or still decline expectations, the hydrogen peroxide cost support is weak.
In addition, hydrogen peroxide is widely used in the production of white paper and cotton yarn. Market participants said that the current white card paper industry in central China and east China individual small and medium-sized enterprises production line shutdown maintenance, output has declined. In the afternoon, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide will still be low. At the same time, with the arrival of the demand season, cotton yarn is expected to enter the passive storage cycle, the inventory pressure slightly relieved. Aftermarket, its hydrogen peroxide market lift effect is also difficult to strong.(China National Chemical News)
